How long will Burma's constitution last?

I've published another op-ed in Irrawaddy - this time I discuss prospects for Burma's 2008 Constitution. There is a small but growing literature assessing how constitutional design and environments influence the longevity of constitutional regimes. I took the most recent book from that literature, Tom Ginsburg and Zachary Elkins' The Endurance of National Constitutions, and apply it to Burma. You can read the entire article here, but in the short of it is that, despite the fears of many observers, Burma's constitution won't last forever - I estimate perhaps just a generation.